ConocoPhillips CEO Warns US Shale Output May Plateau at Current Oil Prices

ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance warned that U.S. shale oil production is expected to plateau if oil prices remain in the current range of approximately $65 to $75 per barrel, with a decline likely if prices fall into the $50s per barrel. Speaking at the Qatar Economic Forum, Lance emphasized that the breakeven cost for shale oil has remained stable, and modest growth could continue if prices stay comfortable, but production may plateau by the end of the decade without significant technological breakthroughs. Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi also cautioned that oil prices below $60 per barrel could reduce investment and jeopardize meeting global energy demand, though he expressed confidence in the stability of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market despite concerns of oversupply. Lance highlighted the anticipated growth in the LNG market, projecting it to expand significantly over the next decade, driven by major suppliers like the U.S. and Qatar. Overall, the outlook signals a cautious energy landscape dependent on price stability and innovation to sustain production and meet rising global demand. These insights reflect a broad consensus among energy experts regarding the challenges and opportunities facing the shale oil sector amid fluctuating prices.