JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Undervalued Targets $126K by Year-End

JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, have identified Bitcoin's current price as significantly undervalued, projecting a rise to approximately $126,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast is based on Bitcoin's historic drop in six-month rolling volatility from around 60% to a record-low 30%, bringing its risk-adjusted performance closer to that of gold, with the volatility ratio falling to 2.0. Corporate treasury accumulation, now accounting for over 6% of Bitcoin's total supply, and increased passive inflows due to index inclusions, have contributed to this volatility suppression and institutional appeal. JPMorgan compares corporate treasuries' Bitcoin holdings to central bank quantitative easing after 2008, which stabilized bond markets by locking assets into passive holdings. The analysts argue that Bitcoin's current $2.2 trillion market capitalization should increase by about 13% to match the roughly $5 trillion private investment in gold on a risk-adjusted basis, supporting the $126,000 price target. Overall, the combination of reduced volatility, corporate treasury activity, and institutional adoption is enhancing Bitcoin's investment case amid growing competition among major corporate holders.