BP Pushes Oil Demand Peak to 2030

BP’s latest Energy Outlook pushes the expected peak in global oil demand to around 2030, forecasting about 103.4 million barrels per day then and a long tail of roughly 83 million bpd by 2050 under its Current Trajectory. BP cites rising consumption in emerging markets, sluggish energy-efficiency gains, continued petrochemical use, geopolitical tensions and investor and political shifts that have refocused majors on fossil fuels as drivers of the slower transition. In a faster-decarbonisation “Below 2‑Degrees” scenario, BP projects oil demand would fall to roughly 33.8 million bpd by 2050, but it warns current policies make the 2050 net-zero target unlikely. BP also raised its gas outlook, projecting natural gas demand of about 4,800 billion cubic metres by 2040 and LNG exports near 900 bcm by 2035. It says CO2‑equivalent emissions would stay broadly flat to 2030 then decline roughly 25% by 2050 on the Current Trajectory, and concludes oil will remain a major primary energy source for decades unless policy and efficiency efforts accelerate sharply.