Analysis Reveals FEMA Underestimated Texas Camp Mystic Flood Risks, Contributing to 27 Deaths

The catastrophic flash flooding in Texas Hill Country on July 4, 2025, which resulted in at least 120 deaths including 27 at Camp Mystic, was worsened by underestimated flood risks on federal maps. Investigations by NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE, and data scientists reveal that FEMA's flood risk maps failed to accurately depict the danger, omitting multiple buildings at Camp Mystic that were actually within high-velocity flood zones. Climate risk modeling from First Street indicates that many more structures and homes nationwide are at risk than FEMA's outdated maps suggest, as FEMA traditionally bases its flood zones on historic tidal surges and large river flooding instead of rainfall and flash flood data. Experts like Jeremy Porter from First Street emphasize that this underestimation has severe human and financial consequences, highlighting a critical gap in preparedness and insurance coverage. Despite awareness of these flaws, FEMA lacks the congressional mandate and funding to update its maps to reflect the increasing flood risks exacerbated by climate change. The ongoing discrepancy between federal and private flood risk assessments underscores the urgent need for improved flood risk management to protect vulnerable communities from future disasters.