US Crude Inventories Rise Unexpectedly Amid OPEC+ Output Talks

U.S. crude oil inventories showed mixed signals recently, with a surprise 2.4 million barrel build reported by the Energy Information Administration for the week ending August 29, contrary to expectations of a drawdown by analysts and market sources. This unexpected increase contributed to a roughly 1% decline in oil prices to two-week lows, as Brent crude futures settled near $66.95 a barrel and WTI near $63.48. Meanwhile, Macquarie strategists forecasted a 1.1 million barrel decline in crude inventories for the same week, highlighting ongoing volatility due to supply timing and refinery maintenance impacts. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predicted a third consecutive weekly decline in U.S. crude stocks averaging a 2 million barrel drop, alongside decreases in gasoline and distillate inventories, reflecting slower refinery runs. The upcoming Opec+ meeting is expected to consider raising production targets further, signaling a priority on regaining market share over supporting prices, which adds to the bearish outlook. Additionally, softer U.S. economic data, including increased jobless claims, is reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which may also influence energy demand forecasts.