Social Security 2026 COLA Expected 2.5 Percent Change

Social Security beneficiaries are projected to receive a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026, a slight increase from earlier forecasts and matching the 2025 raise, according to multiple estimates from The Senior Citizens League and economic analysts. This adjustment would translate to an average monthly increase of about $40 to $50 for retirees, providing modest relief amid ongoing inflation concerns. The COLA is calculated based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) during the third quarter, with the official figure to be announced by the Social Security Administration in October. However, there are emerging concerns about the accuracy of CPI data due to a hiring freeze at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which may reduce the reliability of inflation measurements and potentially result in COLAs that do not fully keep pace with actual price increases. Additional inflationary pressures, such as tariffs implemented under President Donald Trump’s administration and potential energy price spikes, could still influence the final COLA figure. Beneficiaries are advised to monitor inflation trends and prepare accordingly while awaiting the official announcement.