China Maintains Russian LNG Imports Amid Oversupply While Japan Seeks Reduction

China continues to import US-sanctioned Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), with its 11th shipment arriving despite the White House refraining from imposing further restrictions. However, China's overall LNG imports have declined significantly, dropping 15% year-on-year in September and 17% across 2025, as cheaper pipeline gas and local fuels, along with abundant coal, solar, and hydro power, reduce demand. This subdued demand, coupled with a mild winter forecast and geopolitical concerns, has led Chinese buyers to stockpile LNG to about 80% capacity, potentially strengthening their position in future price negotiations. Meanwhile, Japan is working to reduce its dependence on Russian LNG but cannot immediately cease imports due to energy security concerns, with Russian LNG accounting for around 10% of its total imports. Japan's trade minister emphasized the importance of Russian LNG from the Sakhalin-2 project, noting that replacing it could be costly amid tight Asian LNG markets and rising electricity prices. Both China and Japan's cautious approaches highlight the complexities in reducing reliance on Russian energy amid geopolitical tensions and market dynamics.