Conclave Begins as Millions Bet on Next Pope

As the Vatican conclave to elect the next pope begins, betting markets have seen an unprecedented surge, with millions of dollars being wagered globally on the outcome. Four cardinals—Pietro Parolin, Luis Antonio Tagle, Matteo Zuppi, and Pierbattista Pizzaballa—have emerged as the clear favorites, each holding more than a 10 percent probability of selection according to platforms like Polymarket. Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State, currently leads in both betting odds and public sentiment, though the conclave's secretive nature makes the result highly unpredictable. The process involves 133-135 eligible cardinals sequestered in the Sistine Chapel, voting in secrecy until a two-thirds majority is reached. The choice of the next pope is significant, as it will determine whether the Catholic Church continues Pope Francis's reformist trajectory or shifts toward more traditional leadership, with broad implications for doctrine and global influence. Despite the betting fervor, experts caution that the conclave's opacity means that even prominent favorites may not ultimately prevail.