Iraq's Oil and Gas Production Plans Reviewed

Iraq's oil and gas sector is poised for significant growth, with projections indicating gas output could surpass 4.4 billion cubic feet per day and oil output could reach 5.5 million barrels per day by 2030, driven by major fields in the south. However, challenges such as insufficient infrastructure, export pipelines, and harsh fiscal terms hinder foreign investment and exploration efforts. Concurrently, global refining capacity is expected to increase by 2.6 to 4.9 million barrels per day from 2023 to 2028, largely due to modernization efforts and new constructions in China and India. Notably, Iraq's crude oil refining capacity is also projected to rise significantly, contributing to a broader increase in Arab countries' refining capacity to 11.4 million barrels per day by 2030. This growth in refining and production capacity coincides with a rise in global petroleum consumption, which is forecasted to hit 105 million barrels per day by 2028. Climate scientists warn that such increases in fossil fuel reliance may exacerbate global warming, with July 2024 recording the highest temperatures to date, underscoring the urgency for emissions reduction.