OPEC Maintains 2025-26 Oil Demand Forecasts, Lowers Rival Supply Growth

OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecasts at 2.9% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, projecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3 million barrels per day for both years, supported by stable global economic growth despite ongoing trade uncertainties. The organization noted that demand growth in OECD countries, particularly in the Americas, would be modest compared to significant increases in non-OECD regions like China and India. Meanwhile, OPEC trimmed its 2026 supply growth forecast from producers outside the OPEC+ alliance to about 730,000 barrels per day, down from earlier estimates, citing lower U.S. output growth due to reduced capital spending and slower drilling activity. This reduction in non-OPEC+ supply growth is expected to facilitate market balance for the wider OPEC+ group. Despite geopolitical tensions such as the Israel-Iran conflict causing recent volatility, oil production and export facilities have remained unaffected, and Iran's signals toward de-escalation have eased market fears of prolonged disruption. Overall, OPEC expects the global economy to remain resilient in the second half of 2025, providing a solid foundation for oil demand growth while supply adjustments outside OPEC+ contribute to market stability.