Key Indicators Suggest U.S. Recession Approaches

Experts and economists are closely monitoring several key indicators to assess the risk of a U.S. recession, noting that traditional measures like employment trends, industrial production, retail sales, and real income remain crucial. Consumer sentiment has declined steadily, with some analysts pointing to three consecutive months of negative readings as an early warning sign. Additional attention is on hours worked, as reductions in work hours often precede layoffs and broader economic downturns. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) remains the official arbiter of recession calls, but their declarations often come months after downturns begin, prompting many to look to real-time indicators. Uniquely, current recession risks are seen as more directly linked to weakened consumer demand—exacerbated by recent tariffs—rather than the usual business-led downturns. As a result, the public may feel economic strain well before any official recession is declared.