IEA Reports 2030 Low-Emissions Hydrogen Growth Slows, China Leads Capacity

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) Global Hydrogen Review 2025 reports that global hydrogen demand increased to nearly 100 million tonnes in 2024, primarily met by fossil fuel-based production without carbon capture. While low-emissions hydrogen production is expected to grow, the pipeline for such projects has shrunk, with 2030 capacity projections lowered from 49 million tonnes to 37 million tonnes due to project delays, cancellations, and economic pressures such as rising electrolyser costs and falling natural gas prices. Despite these setbacks, operational and committed facilities are poised to increase low-emissions hydrogen output more than fivefold by 2030, potentially reaching over 4 million tonnes annually, with an additional 6 million tonnes possible if governments implement stronger demand-side policies and infrastructure improvements. China dominates the electrolyser market, accounting for 65% of global capacity and nearly 60% of manufacturing output, though concerns about oversupply and cost inflation exist. The report highlights persistent cost competitiveness challenges, infrastructure bottlenecks, and regulatory uncertainties that slow the sector's growth, but anticipates technological advances and supportive policies could narrow the cost gap between low-emissions and conventional hydrogen by 2030. Southeast Asia is emerging as a promising region for low-emissions hydrogen, with significant renewable energy potential and growing interest in developing infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.