Russian-Azerbaijan Relations Strain Over Detentions, Plane Downing, Trade

Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan have escalated recently due to multiple incidents, including the detention and deaths of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russia and the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger plane by Russian air defenses, which killed 38 people. Despite President Vladimir Putin's apology for the plane incident, Azerbaijan demands a formal acknowledgment of responsibility and punishment for those accountable. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged a "difficult time" in bilateral relations but expressed hope for improvement, emphasizing shared interests between the two countries. Analysts highlight that Russia's influence in Azerbaijan and the broader Caucasus has significantly weakened, with Azerbaijan increasingly independent and supported by Turkey, limiting Moscow's ability to exert economic or military leverage. Russian propaganda's aggressive rhetoric against Azerbaijan is seen as a sign of Moscow's weakness, especially as Russia faces setbacks in Ukraine, Armenia, and Central Asia. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continue, but no immediate dramatic changes in relations are expected, reflecting the complex and strained state of Russia-Azerbaijan ties.