IEA Cuts 2030 Low-Emissions Hydrogen Production Forecast by Quarter

The International Energy Agency's 2025 Global Hydrogen Review highlights a slowdown in the growth of low-emissions hydrogen projects, with 2030 production projections cut by nearly a quarter to 37 million metric tons per year, down from 49 million previously estimated. Despite this, hydrogen demand rose to nearly 100 million tons in 2024, mainly met by fossil-fuel-based hydrogen, which remains cheaper due to falling natural gas prices and rising electrolyser costs. The IEA expects the cost gap between fossil and low-emission hydrogen to narrow by 2030 as technology costs decline, renewable energy expands, and new regulations come into effect. Projects currently operational, under construction, or with final investment decisions could increase low-emission hydrogen capacity more than fivefold to over 4 million tons per year by 2030, with potential for an additional 6 million tons if policies effectively stimulate demand and infrastructure development. China leads this sector, accounting for about 65% of installed or planned electrolyser capacity globally, though it faces challenges of potential overcapacity. The IEA warns that economic headwinds, policy uncertainty, and slow infrastructure rollout are restraining progress and urges policymakers to maintain support schemes to accelerate the hydrogen transition.