France Government Nears Collapse Amid Budget Crisis, Migrant Boat Tactics Risked

France's minority government, led by Prime Minister François Bayrou, faces imminent collapse amid mounting opposition to his proposed €44 billion budget cuts aimed at curbing the country's escalating public deficit, which stood at 5.8% of GDP in 2024. The confidence vote scheduled for September 8 is widely expected to fail, as opposition parties including Marine Le Pen's National Rally and the Socialist Party refuse to support the austerity measures, fearing they will hurt economic growth and the working class. This political instability jeopardizes plans to reinterpret maritime law to allow French police to intercept migrant boats within 300 meters of the coast, a change hailed by British officials as a 'gamechanger' in tackling record Channel crossings. The current French law prohibits police from stopping boats once in the water unless rescue is requested, and intervention rates have dropped to 43% this year. The government’s collapse would likely delay this critical policy reform amid ongoing legal concerns over international maritime conventions. Market reactions to the political uncertainty include a decline in the Paris CAC 40 index and rising French borrowing costs, underscoring the economic risks tied to the political crisis.