Packaging Corp Q3 Miss; Greif Acquisition Weighs

Packaging Corporation of America reported Q3 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.73 (GAAP $2.51), missing estimates while revenue rose about 6% year-over-year to roughly $2.31 billion, in line with expectations. Improved pricing and mix in the Packaging segment supported results, but higher operating costs — notably freight, energy and fiber — along with lower production volumes and increased depreciation pressured margins (gross margin ~21.8%). The recent acquisition of Greif’s containerboard business added integration costs and produced an initial monthly loss, though combined shipments including the acquisition rose while legacy corrugated volumes declined. Management gave Q4 GAAP guidance with a midpoint of $2.40 and warned of seasonally higher costs and weaker Paper segment volumes. The earnings miss and weaker guidance sent the stock down about 7.5% in extended trading, and analysts show mixed-to-positive sentiment with a median 12-month price target near $222.