Atlantic Tropical Wave Nears 70% Development Chance This Week

A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands is showing increasing potential for development, with the National Hurricane Center raising the probability of cyclonic formation to 70% over the next seven days. The system is expected to gradually develop into a tropical depression by late this week or weekend, moving west to west-northwest across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph. While the exact path remains uncertain due to the system's disorganized nature and lack of a defined center, early models suggest a westward track toward the Caribbean followed by a possible northward turn away from the U.S. mainland. Historical context highlights September as a critical month for hurricanes impacting Cuba, with notable past storms including Hurricanes Ike, Irma, and Ian. Meteorologists emphasize the need for continued monitoring given the active hurricane season and the potential for the system to gain latitude and curve out to sea or enter the central Caribbean. The next named storm, if development occurs, would be Gabrielle.