Howmet Aerospace Shares Slightly Drop Amid Positive Earnings Outlook

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) has delivered extraordinary long‑term gains — roughly a ninefold increase over five years (reported between ~901% and 951%) and a 78.9% total return over the past year — which has fueled strong investor enthusiasm. The shares closed at $189.68 on Friday, slipping 1.04% that day and marking a short‑term pullback after recent modest gains (some reports note ~3% recent weekly/monthly moves). Valuation is elevated: HWM trades at about 54.8x earnings versus a peer average near 28.8x, while a widely watched fair‑value estimate sits at $206.38 (roughly 8% above the last close), reflecting expectations of accelerating growth and tighter margins. Zacks and consensus estimates expect continued outperformance — an upcoming quarterly EPS of $0.91 (+28% year‑over‑year) and full‑year EPS of $3.59 with revenue around $8.14 billion — metrics that underpin bullish analyst forecasts. Historic fundamentals show strong EPS growth (about 44% annualized over five years), which helps explain the premium investors are willing to pay. Key risks cited include heavy reliance on major aerospace customers and persistent supply‑chain pressures that could undermine forecasted margin expansion and leave less room for upside if expectations are already priced in.