Poll Shows Netanyahu, Likud Gain Seats, Coalition Falls Short Majority

Following the recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party experienced a modest increase in popularity, gaining around four additional seats to hold 26 in the 120-seat Knesset. Despite this boost, Netanyahu's far-right coalition remains significantly short of a majority, with only 49 seats compared to the 61 needed to govern, largely losing ground among coalition partners while opposition parties collectively hold 61 seats. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's re-launched party surged to 24 seats, positioning him as a strong challenger to Netanyahu, who nevertheless leads Bennett narrowly in preferred prime minister polls. Public preference for Netanyahu as prime minister rose to 38 percent, compared to Bennett's 35 percent, marking the first time this year Netanyahu has held the lead in this measure. The poll results reflect political fragmentation and coalition challenges ahead of the next elections scheduled for October 2026, with Netanyahu reportedly disappointed by the smaller-than-expected popularity surge after the war. The Arab parties, which typically do not join governing coalitions, are projected to hold about 10 seats and remain outside the government formation process.