Mexico Revises 2025 Growth Forecast to 1.5%-2.3% Amid Trade Concerns

Mexico's government has revised its 2025 economic growth forecast to between 1.5% and 2.3%, down from a previous estimate of 2.0% to 3.0%, amid concerns of potential recession and external economic pressures, particularly from U.S. tariff threats. The finance ministry characterized its forecast as conservative, citing a weakened residential investment environment and ongoing supply shocks as contributing factors. In contrast, the Bank of Mexico and private sector analysts have predicted even lower growth, with the central bank estimating a contraction of up to 0.2% and private analysts forecasting only 0.5%. The revision comes as Mexico's economy has already contracted in recent months, raising fears of a technical recession should the trend continue. President Claudia Sheinbaum has expressed her opposition to retaliatory measures against the U.S., emphasizing a need for constructive engagement. Looking further ahead, the finance ministry anticipates growth of between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2026.