Adobe: U.S. Holiday Online Sales to Reach $253B

Adobe forecasts U.S. holiday online spending from Nov. 1–Dec. 31, 2025 will hit a record $253.4 billion, up 5.3% from 2024. The firm expects a record ten days with more than $5 billion in online sales; Cyber Week is projected to generate $43.7 billion (17.2% of total), Cyber Monday will be the biggest single day at $14.2 billion and Black Friday is expected to rise to $11.7 billion. Mobile devices are projected to account for a record 56.1% of spending, roughly $142.7 billion. Adobe says this will be the first true AI-enabled holiday, forecasting AI-powered chat traffic to retailers to surge about 520% year-over-year and social-commerce-driven traffic to grow roughly 51%. Buy Now, Pay Later is expected to drive $20.2 billion (up 11%), and consumers are leaning on discounts, BNPL and AI tools to stretch budgets amid tariffs and inflation, with electronics and toys seeing the steepest markdowns.