OPEC+ December Output Rise; U.S. LNG Expansion Raises Risks

OPEC+ recently authorized a modest oil output increase for December aimed at defending market share against higher‑cost rivals such as U.S. shale. Rapid U.S. LNG expansion — driven by Trump‑era approvals including Venture Global’s CP2, roughly 390 million cubic meters/day of new export capacity, and plans to about double U.S. liquefaction and export capacity by 2029 — has raised concerns the global LNG market could move toward oversupply. Natural gas markets remain highly volatile ahead of the 2025–26 winter as strong U.S. production and record LNG exports compete with weather‑driven demand spikes, infrastructure bottlenecks, and reduced Russian pipeline flows to Europe. Regionally, Türkiye’s spot gas trade fell about 55% week‑on‑week to 8.28 million lira, with 1,000 cubic meters priced at 14,725 lira while pipeline inflows continued. Overall, energy prices are being shaped as much by geopolitics and strategic policy as by supply‑demand fundamentals, and data caveats and trading risks complicate market decisions.