ISW Reports Russia Plans Larger-Scale Strikes On Ukraine By Autumn 2025

Russia is significantly increasing its production of missiles and attack drones, enabling it to prepare for larger-scale strikes against Ukraine in the fall of 2025, according to multiple reports by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Recent combined missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kamianske, and Pavlohrad, resulted in casualties and infrastructure damage, underlining the escalating threat. ISW analysts estimate that by November 2025, Russia may be capable of launching up to 2,000 drones in a single night, intensifying the scale and frequency of attacks. This surge in Russian offensive capabilities highlights the urgent need for strengthened Western support, particularly with US Patriot air defense systems, to counter ballistic missile threats. Separately, experts warn that Russia's ongoing occupation and militarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant pose a grave risk, as the Kremlin could potentially use the site for “atomic blackmail” by booby-trapping reactors, which would threaten nuclear fallout across Europe if detonated. The combined military and nuclear threats underscore the dangerous escalation of Russia's war tactics against Ukraine with broader implications for regional and global security.