Poll Shows Reform UK Leading Westminster, Gains First Scottish Seats

Recent polling data from YouGov's Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model indicates a dramatic shift in the British political landscape, with Nigel Farage's Reform UK party projected to become the largest party in Westminster, winning 271 seats if a general election were held today. Labour is expected to suffer significant losses, dropping to 178 seats and becoming the second-largest party, while the Conservatives would fall to fourth place with only 46 MPs, behind the Liberal Democrats who would gain seats to reach 81. The Scottish National Party is projected to regain its status as the largest party in Scotland, increasing its seats to 38, while Reform UK is also predicted to win seats in Scotland for the first time. This shift marks a fragmentation of the traditional two-party dominance, with the combined vote share of Labour and the Conservatives falling to 41%, down from 59% in the previous year, pointing toward the likelihood of a hung parliament requiring coalition negotiations. The polling also reveals internal challenges within Labour, with over 120 MPs opposing welfare cuts, highlighting tensions within the party. Overall, these developments signal a volatile political environment ahead of the next scheduled election in 2029.