China Faces Escalating Risks From Iran-Israel Conflict, Gwadar Strategic Role Grows

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has heightened concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about one-fifth of global oil trade passes, with Iran threatening potential closure amid missile and drone attacks. This instability has triggered disruptions in shipping and led to increased oil prices, underscoring the strategic importance of alternative routes such as Pakistan's Gwadar Port, which China is developing to safeguard its energy supply. China is heavily dependent on Iranian oil, with over 90% of Iran's exports going to Chinese refineries, many operating covertly to evade sanctions, creating a complex economic relationship where Iran's oil payments in renminbi reinforce its dependency on China. Meanwhile, Iran’s growing ballistic missile arsenal, supported by Chinese technology and materials, has escalated the military threat to Israel, with evidence showing China’s direct involvement in supplying components for missiles and drones used in the conflict. Beyond oil, China’s Belt and Road investments in Iran have increased, making Beijing’s stake in Tehran multifaceted; any significant weakening or regime change in Iran could jeopardize China’s diplomatic and strategic interests in the Middle East. Overall, the Iran-Israel conflict is intensifying geopolitical tensions, threatening global energy security, and amplifying China’s vulnerabilities in the region.