Climate Study Forecasts Revised After Uzbekistan Data Error

A widely cited 2023 climate study published in Nature, which predicted that climate change could reduce global GDP by 19% by 2050 and 62% by 2100, has come under scrutiny due to a critical data error involving Uzbekistan. Researchers from Stanford University found that the GDP data for Uzbekistan showed implausible swings, including a nearly 90% collapse and rebound within a decade, which distorted the model's projections. Removing Uzbekistan from the dataset reduced the projected economic losses to 6% by 2050 and 23% by 2100, figures more aligned with other climate-economic models. The original authors from Germany’s Potsdam Institute acknowledged the error and revised their 2050 forecast to a 17% GDP loss but maintained that their overall conclusions still stand. The study’s findings had influenced U.S. government agencies, the World Bank, and other institutions for financial planning and policy decisions. Nature is currently reviewing the paper, emphasizing the importance of continuous scientific scrutiny and data validation in climate economics.