UBS has expressed cautious optimism regarding the U.S. economy, noting that while recession fears remain, recent inflation data and better-than-expected retail sales have eased concerns. CEO Sergio Ermotti indicated that a slowdown is more likely than a recession, emphasizing that economic indicators are not sufficiently dire to warrant alarm. The firm anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 50 basis points in the near future, with heightened market volatility expected in the latter half of the year. The S&P 500 has shown resilience, recovering from recent declines and nearing record highs, with analysts maintaining a Moderate Buy consensus on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. UBS advises investors to focus on quality growth stocks as they navigate potential economic uncertainties.