Japan Ruling Coalition Likely to Lose Upper House Majority

Japan's ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and comprising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, is projected to lose its majority in the House of Councillors following the July 20 election, according to multiple exit polls. The coalition needs at least 50 seats to retain control but is forecasted to win between 32 and 51 seats, falling short of a majority and increasing pressure on Ishiba's leadership. Public dissatisfaction with rising inflation, stagnant wages, and looming U.S. tariffs on Japanese auto exports under President Donald Trump's administration has significantly influenced voter sentiment. The opposition, including the Constitutional Democratic Party, Democratic Party for the People, and the populist Sanseito party with its nationalist platform, are expected to gain seats. Losing control of both parliamentary chambers threatens political instability and could prompt leadership challenges or early elections in Japan. The outcome marks a critical juncture for the LDP, which has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955.