JPMorgan Expects $500 Billion Retail-Led Stock Buying Surge in H2 2025

JPMorgan forecasts a substantial $500 billion inflow into the U.S. stock market in the second half of 2025, predominantly driven by retail investors who are expected to purchase an additional $360 billion after already investing $270 billion in the first half. This influx is anticipated to boost the stock market by 5% to 10%, with retail investors resuming buying after a brief profit-taking period during the V-shaped recovery of U.S. stocks. Hedge funds and algorithmic funds have limited capacity to increase holdings significantly, while pension funds and insurance companies are expected to continue selling stocks in favor of fixed income. Foreign investors, currently on a so-called “buyer’s strike,” are predicted to reenter the market once the U.S. dollar stabilizes, given the importance of the U.S. market and the strength of leading tech stocks. Overall, the combined buying power of retail investors, potential foreign capital inflows, and some quantitative funds is projected to offset selling pressures and support market gains through the end of the year.