India, Pakistan Increase Military Capabilities Amid Rising Tensions

Tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply increased following a recent terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir, with both nations significantly upgrading their military capabilities since their 2019 clash. Experts warn that these enhancements—including advanced fighter jets and missile systems—raise the risk of rapid escalation, even in limited conflicts, and amplify the danger in the already volatile Kashmir region. While both sides are believed to avoid nuclear weapons unless severely provoked, analysts caution that the absence of clear mutual thresholds could trigger inadvertent escalation. US political scientist John Mearsheimer has expressed concern about the lack of robust US intervention in the current crisis, which has historically helped prevent major wars between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Military experts also note that decision-makers in both countries now have a higher risk appetite for conflict initiation and escalation than before, heightening the perils of any confrontation. Despite a history of restraint, the upgraded arsenals and increased willingness to act could make any future conflict more perilous than past confrontations.