NRF Projects US Retail Sales Reach $5.42 Trillion Despite Economic Challenges

The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects U.S. retail sales will grow between 2.7% and 3.7% in 2025, reaching between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion, despite ongoing economic uncertainties including inflation and tariffs. This forecast follows a 3.6% growth in 2024, indicating a steady recovery aligned with the NRF's pre-pandemic average. NRF President Matthew Shay emphasized that while significant policy uncertainties remain, low unemployment and stable wage growth are bolstering consumer spending. Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted that consumer fundamentals are strong, although confidence has dipped due to economic pressures. The NRF also highlighted a notable increase in online and non-store sales, projected to grow by 7% to 9%, further reshaping the retail landscape. Overall, consumer spending is expected to remain robust, even amid challenges.