WTO Revises Global Trade Outlook for 2024

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has slightly raised its forecast for global goods trade to a 2.7% increase this year, up from its previous estimate of 2.6%. However, it cautioned that geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty pose significant risks, particularly due to conflicts in the Middle East, which could disrupt global energy costs and shipping routes. The WTO anticipates a gradual recovery in global trade for 2024, projecting growth of 3%, albeit down from a previous estimate of 3.3%. A notable year-on-year increase of 2.3% in global merchandise trade was recorded in the first half of this year, aided by decreasing inflation allowing central banks to lower interest rates. The organization also acknowledged some upside potential if interest rate cuts lead to stronger-than-expected economic growth without reigniting inflation. Diverging monetary policies among major economies could, however, create financial volatility, complicating debt servicing for poorer nations.