USDA Projects Record 2025 Corn Crop, Tight Soybean Stocks

The USDA's May 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projects tighter-than-expected U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year, with corn stocks at 1.8 billion bushels and soybean stocks at 295 million bushels, both below analyst expectations. Corn production is forecasted to reach a record 15.82 billion bushels with an average yield of 181 bushels per acre, while soybean production is expected to be slightly lower than the previous year, contributing to the reduced stocks. Wheat ending stocks are projected higher than anticipated at 923 million bushels, reflecting improved domestic use and slower exports. Globally, corn and soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 are also forecasted lower than trade estimates, while wheat stocks are higher. Market reactions included rallies in corn and soybean futures, attributed in part to the report, though analysts caution that weather conditions remain critical to achieving these production and export targets. The USDA's next supply, demand, and production update is expected on June 12, 2025.