First American Pope Leo XIV Election Sparks Multimillion-Dollar Betting Payouts

The unexpected election of Cardinal Robert Prevost as Pope Leo XIV, the first American-born pope, led to massive payouts for a few lucky bettors who wagered on him despite his long odds of about 1%. Betting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket saw over $40 million wagered on the conclave, with most bettors favoring favorites like Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who suffered significant losses. Prevost's odds were as low as 1-2%, and relatively few bettors placed their wagers on him, resulting in some large returns exceeding $50,000 for those who took the chance. This papal betting market is a niche and largely unregulated arena in the U.S., with wagering on the pope considered a novelty dating back to the 15th century but frowned upon by some Catholic officials. Prevost's election surprised many experts and oddsmakers due to limited expertise on Church hierarchies among bookmakers, and his moderate stance within the Church may signal a middle path amid ideological divides. The historic selection generated reactions from political leaders and highlighted the growing interest in betting on global events, despite ethical questions raised by the Church.