Plug Power Rallies on DOE Loan, Policy Tailwinds

Plug Power shares have rallied sharply to about $2.65 in a nine-day winning streak, including roughly a 21% one-day jump and further premarket gains. The move has been driven largely by renewed investor interest after policy clarity around clean-energy tax credits (Section 48E) and a $1.66 billion U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantee, rather than new company-specific fundamentals. Analysts have modestly raised targets — consensus moved from about $1.97 to $2.08, with some firms (RBC) lifting targets toward $2.50 — and longer-term model-based forecasts project roughly $2.51 by 2030. Material headwinds remain, including tariffs, ongoing operating losses, intense competition and high short interest of about 30%. Investors are particularly concerned about Plug Power’s history of heavy equity dilution from share and warrant issuances that raised hundreds of millions at declining prices. Management highlights a $525 million secured credit facility and says it does not currently plan further equity issuances this year, but the risk of future dilution and execution challenges leaves the company's path to sustained profitability uncertain.