China Curbs Trigger Rare Earths Supply Crisis

Goldman Sachs warns global rare-earth supply chains face acute disruption as China expands export controls and continues to dominate mining, refining and magnet production (roughly 69% of mining, 92% of refining and 98% of magnet manufacturing, per Goldman). Beijing’s October curbs added five rare-earth elements and tightened scrutiny of semiconductor users; Goldman estimates even a 10% disruption in REE-dependent industries could wipe out roughly $150 billion in global output, flagging samarium, graphite, lutetium, terbium and light rare earths as especially vulnerable. Global automakers are urgently securing supplies—rare-earth magnets are critical for conventional and electric vehicle components—and executives warn curbs, depleted stockpiles and tighter export licensing risk parts shortages and plant closures. The European Commission and EU officials have opened emergency talks to accelerate diversification and secure trusted partners. Analysts say Western producers (for example Lynas and Solvay) and recycling efforts can only partially mitigate the risk because refining capacity remains heavily concentrated in China. The moves have intensified geopolitical friction ahead of a planned Trump–Xi meeting, prompted threats of tariffs and broader political responses, and spurred mitigation efforts such as a U.S.–Australia critical minerals agreement to boost joint mining and processing ventures.