Mesa, Wichita Face Declining School Enrollment

Mesa Public Schools projects enrollment has fallen by roughly 1,800 students (about 4.5%) to a projected 51,663 this school year, marking a third consecutive year with more graduating high school seniors than kindergarten entrants. Declines are broad-based (kindergarten -11.5%, grades 1–6 -4.4%, grades 7–8 -2.1%, grades 9–12 -4.3%) and officials cite charter schools, school vouchers, families leaving the state, falling birth rates and housing affordability as drivers even as student retention shows some improvement. Wichita Public Schools reported 45,075 students for 2025–26, a roughly 3% drop (about 1,500 students) from last year and a continuation of a multi-year decline from over 47,000. Consultants project Wichita’s decline could continue through 2033–34 due to Sedgwick County’s falling birth rate and other population shifts, and district leaders warn lower per-pupil state funding tied to enrollment is squeezing budgets. Wichita has already faced voter rejection of a $450 million bond to build and consolidate schools, noted Newcomer program enrollment fell from 1,152 to 930, and officials say right-sizing or school closures may be needed if declines persist. Both districts’ enrollment drops mirror wider national trends and are prompting budget, planning and facility decisions tied to shifting community demographics and state funding formulas.