Weak La Niña Forecasted for Winter 2024

A weak La Niña event is anticipated to develop this winter, with a 55% likelihood of transitioning from neutral conditions to La Niña between December 2024 and February 2025, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Despite the potential emergence of La Niña, its impact is expected to be short-lived and insufficient to mitigate the ongoing effects of climate change, which is leading to record high temperatures and extreme weather events globally. The climate conditions associated with this La Niña are likely to result in drier winters in the southern U.S. while enhancing precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. In Europe, particularly Italy, the effects will be less pronounced but may include episodes of intense cold and above-average precipitation in the northern regions. The broader context of these climate patterns remains critical, as human-induced climate change exacerbates their effects. As of late November 2024, neutral ENSO conditions have persisted, with oceanic and atmospheric observations indicating slightly below-average sea surface temperatures.