ICE Canola Futures Hit Five-Month Low Amid Harvest Pressure, Trade Concerns

Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange have experienced a notable decline, hitting fresh five-month lows amid ongoing harvest pressure and subdued demand, especially from China due to trade tensions and tariffs. Market analysts like Phil Speiss from RBC Dominion Securities highlight a lack of bullishness driven by the absence of the Chinese market and anticipate prices potentially dropping to C$580 per tonne before stabilizing. While comparable vegetable oils such as Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil have seen mixed movements with occasional technical bounces supported by crude oil price gains, canola prices continue to face downward pressure from the large Canadian harvest and weak export prospects. The Canadian canola harvest is progressing slowly but steadily, with average yields reported between 45 to 60 bushels per acre, and global production estimates, including Australia's slight increase and Ukraine's decrease, also influence market sentiment. Speculative funds are reducing their long positions, adding to the bearish outlook, and while some bargain hunting occurs at the low levels, the market overall remains pressured by seasonal trends and export uncertainties. Despite occasional short-term rebounds, the canola market outlook remains cautious given the interplay of harvest dynamics, weak demand from China, and broader oilseed market conditions.